Long Distance Calling
Translation: MillennialMonitor.com
Moscow, January 29 – To find even a hint of the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions in their 50-minute conversation, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin were not optimistic. Nevertheless, it seems that restoration of economic ties between the U..S. and Russia is possible. Russian business, at least, believes it.
In the priority – the joint fight of Russia and the U.S. against international terrorism, and the restoration of economic relations – the only possibility. And we are talking about “economic and trade relations between the business circles of the two countries”, and not the resuscitation of full bilateral relations between the two countries. This is the first impression on the outcome of talks on the phone, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin held Saturday night.
On the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions, by the way, initiated in 2014, namely the United States (Europe, Canada, UK, Japan, Australia and several other countries supported the sanctions after), while personal communication has not been revealed by the leaders. Not a word. At least, this is no mention in postrelize Kremlin press service, retold in a concise form of the 50-minute conversation.
About the key reasons for the imposition of sanctions – a line of duty, “also touched upon the main aspects of the crisis in Ukraine.”
Thread the lifting of sanctions in a telephone conversation between Presidents Putin and Trump was not discussed, according to “Interfax” the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov.
It is too early to abolish
Trump himself on the same day to communicate with by telephone Putin made it clear that talk about the lifting of the anti-Russian sanctions, “it is too early.” It was made at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Theresa May, who arrived for the United States visit. “We believe that the sanctions should be continued before the Minsk agreement will be fully implemented. And we will continue to advocate for it in the EU “, – said May. Similarly expressed and Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Trump was under strong pressure not only in the US but also in Europe. On the part of politicians, whose opinion it cannot be ignored, despite the fact that demonstrates determination and independence. Even if Trump at first intended to bargain on sanctions, then, upon taking office, it seems, is wary of doing it.
In practice, Trump resolutely cracked down so far only with the legacy of his predecessor as president. And he listens to European leaders. On Saturday, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel warned on the coordination of efforts of France and Germany on the issue of anti-Russian sanctions. Their cancellation is possible only in one case – if there is progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements on Ukraine, he told a press conference with his French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault.
French President Francois Hollande, with whom Trump also had time to talk on the phone on Saturday, also linked the lifting of sanctions with the performance of all the items Moscow Minsk agreements. In other words, the leaders of the three main European powers politely warned Trump is worth to deal with Russia.
Counter signals – positive
A coordinated attack on Trump gave his result, but that sentiment does not seem to spoil. Key call the US and Russian leaders were benevolent. At both sides. The Kremlin’s presentation is as follows:
“During the conversation, both sides had shown a disposition to actively work together on stabilization and development of Russian-American interaction – in a constructive, equal and mutually beneficial basis.”
The White House press office described the conversation as “an important step in improving relations between the US and Russia, which need to be restored.” The White House noted that Trump and Putin hope that after the call on January 28, both sides will be able to quickly get to the fight against terrorism and “other important issues of common interest.”
Russian business is the major mood presidents caught instantly. For example, a private equity fund of Russia immediately after the call from the Oval Office, issued a statement:
“Focus on the restoration of trade and economic cooperation is very important,” says the statement of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF).
The fund is called the results of the conversation positive signal to business and see “the possibility of restoring cooperation between our countries, including in the investment sphere.”
It’s time to New York
According to general director of Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev, in the near future, the fund will present the American partners for a preliminary discussion of the 10 priority projects that can be carried out investment cooperation between Russia and the United States. Russian Direct Investment Fund also intends to open an office in New York in May this year. And it plans to organize a visit of a delegation of American investors and businessmen in Russia.
Russian business has really something to lose, and there is something to fight for restoring economic ties with the economy the number one. The most vulnerable were the fuel and energy complex of Russia and the financial and banking system. Russian banks have been cut off from the cheap American and European liquidity and the calculation that this niche will replace China, was not justified.
US sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector are to ban the supply of technology and equipment for deep offshore and for the development of shale reserves. As well as restrict access of Russian companies to the capital markets. In addition, on January 11, it was known that a number of US senators demand to ban investments in oil and natural gas in Russia, transactions involving the purchase and sale of sovereign debt and participation in the privatization of Russian state assets.
Moreover, the possible sanctions also affect individuals and companies from third countries who decided to invest in the Russian energy sector. Existing restrictions apply to “Rosneft” (by the way, because of the US sanctions Exxon was forced to withdraw from the joint project with the Arctic “Rosneft”), “Gazprom”, “Lukoil”, NOVATEK and “Surgutneftegaz”.
Stolen future
In 2014, when sanctions were introduced only after the annexation of Crimea to Russia, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said losses from the sanctions for the national fuel and energy sector will be minimal, they will have only a minor impact on the work of the industry. The head of the National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov pointed out that it was during the sanctions Russia set records in oil (the last was recorded in November 2016, when the daily production totaled 11.2 million barrels, which was the highest figure for 25 years).
“The losses from the sanctions are actually very difficult to estimate, since the introduction of restrictions virtually coincided with the collapse of oil prices,” – explains the head of the fund.
The barrel went down in mid-2014, when it was worth $ 110. “Bottom” was reached in January 2016, when the quotation went below $ 30 per barrel. Now prices are balancing on the level of $ 54-56. “He came out of the Exxon Arctic cooperation with” Rosneft “because of the sanctions, but they were not the only reason – Simonov said. – To extract oil in the Kara Sea shelf at world prices in the $ 40-50 per barrel would be rather strange.”
According to Simon, the biggest market feared that service companies will leave due to sanctions from Russia, but this did not happen.
“Losses from sanctions rather have the character of” Stolen Future “, as due to the lack of technology and equipment is deferred shelf exploration and development of shale reserves”, – the expert believes.
Despite sanctions and retaliatory embargo of Russian-American trade remains at a significant level. According to the Federal Customs Service data, in 2013 the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to nearly $ 28 billion, or 3.3% of Russia’s foreign trade. In 2014 – $ 29 billion, the share – 3.7%, in 2015, bilateral trade fell to $ 21 billion, but the US share of Russian trade turnover amounted to 3.9%
And against the background of declining revenues Russian American fast food – McDonald’s, KFC and Burger King – enjoys growing popularity in Russia. The same McDonald’s not only not going to go away from Russia, but, on the contrary, opens more locations.
Russian and American business and consumers do not lose sight of each other. By the way, Trump, extending wishes for happiness and prosperity to the Russian people, heard back from Putin that “Russians experience similar feelings towards the Americans.”
Reach button
Deputy Chairman of Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach, commenting on the election of Trump, said he did not consider the possible lifting of sanctions, but “the conflict will decrease, the interpretation of change.”
Senior Vice President of Argus Vyacheslav Mishchenko believes that now, following Trump’s taking office, will be “tested the soil.” “Donald Trump in the new policy of the figure, and it will ensure that related to his statements was a serious”, – says Mishchenko. But Trump has repeatedly stated that he is ready to restore relations with Russia. Although not in the button by pressing the reset obtainable relationship.
Putin himself has until recently followed a conservative policy with regard to the majority of U.S. initiatives. The Russian authorities still consider unacceptable the sanctions’ pressure on Russia, but are confident in the adequacy of retaliatory embargo on imported products. Putin, commenting on last year’s results of the October summit of the BRICS in Goa, India, said that there is no need to cancel kontrsanktsii against countries that have imposed sanctions against Russia. “Figure it!” – He responded to Putin, answering the question of “Gazetya.Ru” about the possibility of mitigating the Russian retaliatory sanctions.
But that was in October, before the U.S. presidential election. At that time, few people took Trump seriously. And he took and surprised.
Related: Moscow on Line One
Translation: MillennialMonitor.com
Source: https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2017/01/29/10498499.shtml
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The Inauguration
