Minsk Agreement – Russian smiles – Ukrainian tears
Sure, they had to spend all night with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s palace on Feb. 11-12. That could not have been pleasant for anybody, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande.
But now they can walk away, consciences clear, and leave a weakened and dismembered Ukraine to fend for itself militarily against a much stronger foe that has stolen the Crimean peninsula, which was 5 percent of the land and people, and that continues to wage war against the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, once home to another 15 percent of Ukraine’s 45 million people.
It took the feckless Hollande only a few hours to raise the prospect of delivering to Russia the long-delayed order of two $1.2 billion Mistral warships. This deal, quite literally, could blow up in France’s face if those in the West continue to deny the reality that Russia remains the greatest threat to European security today. So France refuses to arm Ukraine, a victim of the Kremlin’s international lawlessness, but is willing to arm the aggressor? Money trumps principles again.
It wasn’t all bad news for Ukraine, however. At the very same time that the problematic Minsk II peace agreement was announced on Feb. 12, to replace the long-ignored Minsk I peace agreement in September, Ukraine finally got the green light from the International Monetary Fund for a $17.5 billion, four-year loan. The trouble is, the credit comes up $22.5 billion short of Ukraine’s debt obligations through 2019.
As Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer tweeted: “Ukraine gets money, Russia gets land” and he noted the absurdity of Putin agreeing to the withdrawal from Ukraine of fighters and weapons that he says aren’t there in the first place.
Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko was pressured into peace at all costs by the fragmented European Union that he is so eager to join. He and Ukraine now face a recurring nightmare: the light-fingered neighbor next door has the key to the house and has annexed the nation’s sea-facing garden.
Minsk II is tantamount to surrender for Ukraine. The country’s border to Russia is to remain wide open until 2016 and its forces are to retreat further away from the September demarcation line.
Not only that, but the insurgents who have tortured Ukrainian soldiers and terrorized civilians are to be granted amnesty. They will run their own mini-Russian kleptocracy, bankrolled by Kyiv, who in turn are bankrolled by the IMF. Crimea isn’t even mentioned in the peace deal, because everyone has already accepted that land grab.
It is fittingly tragic that Ukraine’s interests in the run-up to the talks were represented in the trilateral contact group by ex-Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and his former chief of staff, Victor Medvedchuk, one of Putin’s best pals. With friends like this, Ukraine doesn’t need enemies.
If the fighting ceases, the surrender might arguably be worth it. The cease-fire is supposed to come into force at midnight on Feb. 15, but until then both sides are free to battle it out for the strategic railway city of Debaltseve, where some 8,000 dug-in Ukrainian troops are now encircled by hostile forces, including military vehicles only in service with Russian armed forces. Putin has urged those troops to surrender and leave. It’s doubtful they will. Just like Donetsk airport, Debaltseve is likely to remain a tinderbox which could re-ignite the war at any time.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says Russia sent another 50 tanks and 40 rocket launchers into its territory on Feb. 11 – not generally considered to be the act of a party interested in peace.
While peace is the noble goal, surely there are only so many times that Europe is willing to walk into the same brick wall before it realizes it needs to find another way. This cease-fire will not last, so the EU had better draw up and get ready to impose much heavier sanctions on Russia. Ukraine needs to take advantage of any pause in fighting to rebuild its defenses. Many Ukrainians don’t realize it now, but they are going to have to militarize the same way that other nations do when a neighbor is the enemy.
After Minsk, Ukraine can say it tried and Europe can take a breather before enduring another fractious debate over a new round of sanctions for Russia. But debate they must, because this cease-fire will not last.
Putin and Russia’s kleptocratic, brainwashing elite live in a very different world from the diplomats of Western Europe. Russia’s policy is to grab what it can until it is stopped by someone bigger and more powerful. It could be the United States and its guns that stop Putin’s rampage, but not likely under U.S. President Barack Obama, whose policies on Ukraine disappoint even members of his own Democratic Party. But arms to Ukraine doesn’t have to be the solution — or the only one. Let it be European democratic principles and financial sacrifice that stops Putin.
The EU was built to prevent war in Europe. It should not forget that enriching its citizens comes a distant second to this lofty principle. When this cease-fire comes crashing down, as it will, Europe should be ready. Russia’s war has, after all, been going on for one year. The EU needs to tighten the economic vice on Russia if it wants to avoid an even bloodier solution.
Related:
