In the end comes a savior but instinct or by fear of something of the unknown. For weeks, the leaders of the euro zone had positioned together against the Greeks.   

After each meetingGerman government sources were more or less confident.

Berlin was with it’s hard line stance against the left government in Athens was not isolated. The Spaniards, Portuguese, Italians and French – all the  compliant southerners were this time on our side.

And now this.

Thursday night Alexis Tsipras sent his  offer to Brussels without his signature.

So had to be sent a second transmittal to Brussels. Since then, the mood has changed.

“We must rescue Greece with support for the Greek government,” said Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi on Friday morning. If it were up to the Italians, the EU summit would take place on Sunday evening because they may have settled the debt dispute with Athens earlier.

So optimism of  the creditors is long gone.

France for years has lagged behind in European policy issues. Now she suddenly pushes forward. While the Chancellor is silent, French President Francois Hollande called the Greek plan soon after its arrival  “credible and serious”.

Greece has shown that it was determined to stay in the euro zone. For Hollande the Sunday summit is the solemn coronation of compromise after six tough months of bitter quarreling on Sunday.

When Germany’s most important partner in the Euro-Zone says something like that Germany can not just go out and throw the whole thing up in the air.

Frustration and skepticism falls on Berlin: “and to consider waiting it through.” There was nothing more to be heard from the capital.

It is clear that the split within Europe is greater.

And Germany suddenly fewer partners sitting on it’s side.

If the Greeks do not quite unwillingly and when Italians, French and even the Irish remain at their position, then it will be empty on the side of the table, sitting with the Angela Merkel.

Around Tsipras and Hollande there is crowding.

The “world” shows who sits where why:

The Greece critics

Once there were 18, at least a week before the Greek referendum, to set up as pressure on Athens.

Now there are fewer and fewer.

Germany is leading the camp of of skeptics, but represents not even the sharpest position against Athens.

The Baltics, Dutch, Finns, Slovenes and Slovaks would throw the Greeks over the euro. Some even without negotiations. The Eastern Europeans have even tough reforms behind them and do not want to send money to Athens.

The Greece critics are fed up.

For months it has been negotiating with Alexis Tsipras and his former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis. For months the Greeks have not delivered. And when a program actually lis on the table, Tsipras has refused.

The Greek Prime Minister announced a Referendum.

And worse yet: He called on the Greeks to vote against this package. About 60 percent followed. And now the same Prime Minister comes and gives the Europeans an almost unchanged program as its negotiating proposal.

How absurd is that?’

No, says an observer of Greece. 

The “No” in the referendum may have been entertaining, but now it is just serious. And since you would rather stay in the euro – if necessary sign on to  this package.

The hardliners will be angrier.

Already, because you do not know whether the government keep its many promises, what they do not want to comply with later.

It’s a tricky situation.

Usually you can master such crises only with a lot of confidence. Confidence in the Greek government? Because you laugh not only in Berlin. That is no longer available since the outbreak of the recent crisis.

One can say after the announcement of the proposal. For the admission of new negotiations will probably be enough. For a third aid program with even more money probably not.

The International Monetary Fund will say in the foreseeable future that this program is just is not enough, if only because the economic situation in the country has deteriorated so dramatically due to the closure of banks.

The previously envisaged objectives will be only difficult to reach. The debt ratio will therefore rise even.

Either the Europeans are ready for a haircut or Athens is beyond help.

And: The reforms must be tightened again.

A hard haircut Germany will not agree. The Chancellor made this clear just this week. A postponement in the repayment, lower interest rates? That is possible.

Assuming there is agreement with Athens on reforms.

The neutrals

Then there are the countries that want to position themselves neither on the one side or the other. They do not give a position.

And how they vote dependson the location. The Greek camp is larger now. These include Portugal, Ireland or Spain, who once received self-help, but it had to comply with regulations. But neutral at the table is Luxembourg and Malta.

To her opponents and supporters of a new utility will have to advertise.

Your demands on the reform program should not be too large.

Your voting record is likely to depend not least on the development of the discussions.

Ask the Greeks so on like the last time, they might tend to return to the hardliners.

Are they this time reliable, stick to their commitments and not rumble around in public, then it must not be.

The Friends of Greece

Athens are well disposed, to mention only the most important ones, France, Italy, Cyprus, the European Commission and the EU Parliament.

They now want the deal – or at least the resumption of talks. For them it is important to come to a good result.

France, says a German negotiator, has no interest in a Grexit.

The reason: The French feared even a minimal increase in interest rates on their bonds as a result of a euro exit of Greece.

“Half a percentage point is more than  the entire budget bill for next year,” said one observer.

And the Italians again live in fear that it could go as the Greeks for them one day. Italy would fall into economic decline.

Cyprus in turn is economically closely intertwined with Greece and would have to write off a portion of its exports to the neighboring country.

A good deal today could the friends of Greece perhaps later times own benefit and if it should be necessary for.

However, Tsipras had already made it in the past negotiations, raise many representatives of the peripheral countries against them. He will be wise this time to behave tactically to keep these states by his side at the table.