Russia and Turkey came together in the hard clinch, after the Turkish Air Force was shot down by a Russian Su-24 bomber in Syria. If a conflict situation is not unlocked, then “all our economic interests will be subject to revision,” says Igor Yurgens, president of the Institute of Contemporary Development (INSOR). And if long-term projects like the gas pipeline “Turkish Stream” is can be taken out of brackets, the tourism and food supply will suffer now.

Turkey closed

The incident with the Russian bomber once had a serious negative impact on the tourism industry.Russian authorities have already stated that “the level of terrorist threat in Turkey is not less than in Egypt.” Recommendation not to visit Turkey and refuse from the sale of tour packages to holiday in this country already voiced by representatives of the Foreign Ministry and the Federal Agency for Tourism.

“Provision of services for the organization of travel of Russian tourists to Turkey under the action of the threat of terrorism is a flagrant violation of the laws of the Russian Federation”, – said in a statement the Federal Tourism Agency.

In Egypt, through law enforcement agencies

Rosturizm against selling tours to Egypt with the flight through third countries. To suppress violations of department is ready to apply to law enforcement …  →

As announced Office, such actions entail the application to the perpetrators of measures of legal liability. This means that tour operators should not only stop the sale of permits since November 24 and will be required to reimburse the tourists who have already purchased a ticket to Turkey, 100% of its value.

November – an atypical time to holiday in Turkey – usually during the mass seasonal demand falls from May to October. But this year, the season for the Russians was extended because of the situation in Egypt.Currently Rosturizm collects data on the number of Russians vacationing in Turkey. According to the Russian Union of Travel Industry (PCT) is now in Turkish resorts and 10 thousand. Tourists from Russia, including those tour operators are redirected to this country instead of Egypt.

As for those who did not go on holiday to Turkey, the Russian travel agencies sold for about 4-5 thousand. Vouchers, flight which was to be held before the New Year.

It’s not much, compared to the number of Russians who were in Egypt at the time of the suspension of air traffic (80-90 thousand. People), or buy a ticket at a later date (140 thousand. Tours to March 2016). The more that the “planned evacuation”, which was held in Egypt, out of the question: is that tour operators were asked to prepare for a “different version of events.”

On the other hand, Turkey has for many years been the main destination for foreign holiday, however, losing in this year’s first place Egypt. In total, Turkey and Egypt in the first half of 2015 accounted for 40% of outbound Russian tourist traffic is 2.1 million people.

The closure of almost half the market exit, along with the unstable situation in the economy, the bankruptcy of “Transaero” and last year’s closure of large travel companies undermines confidence in the tourism industry itself. To the detriment of the travel company can write and make a deposit into hotels, and loss of profits and damage to business reputation.

The ban on the sale of tours to Turkey will be another heavy blow to the industry, because it is Turkey tour operators hoped to replace the Red Sea.

“Backstab” Russian Tourism

The largest tour operators working in the Turkish area, has announced the termination of the implementation of package tours to Turkey (among them “Pegas Touristik”, “Natalie Tours”, “Biblio Globus” and Tez Tour). From reservation systems Turkish vouchers vanished and TUI, Brisco, «NTK Intourist», Coral Travel and Sunmar.

After the decision to cease sending tourists to Egypt, adopted on 6 November, the Russian tour operators working in the Egyptian direction, were forced to evacuate tourists from the resorts, sending them empty planes from Russia. Damage from such tourist companies’ planned evacuation “estimated at least 1.7 billion rubles.

After November 6, instead of the Egyptian tour operators have started to offer tourists an alternative holiday in other countries. Turkey, as an alternative not only considered “Biblio Globus” who offered his Egyptian tour of Cyprus.

Single Egypt

Each month ban flights to Egypt from Russia and Great Britain will cost the Arab Republic of $ 280 million. The tourists from these two countries were 40 …%  →

Other participants travel market (“Natalie Tours», TEZ Tour, TUI, «Pegas Touristik», Sunmar, Coral Travel, Anex Tour) offer customers to choose any direction from our own range. Turkey was the most popular because of visa facilitation with Russia, geographical proximity and relatively low prices compared with Egypt.

Only Turkey as Egypt proposed to replace the single largest tour operator – Brisco. This company operated only in two directions – Egypt and Turkey. Guide tour operator will have to urgently go to the new line, which will replace banned for orgturizma direction.

Under attack appeared and airlines who have worked closely with tour operators and charter flights are carried out from Russia to the Turkish resorts.

Some airlines affiliated with tour operators, for example, “Kogalymavia” or Metrojet, part of the holding with a tour operator Brisco, and airline Azur Air – one tour group operator Anex Tour. The need to pay the lease payments are denominated mainly in foreign currency, as well as to pay for downtime of aircraft at the airport may cause serious losses to the airlines.

These airlines worked at a private Egyptian direction. That they hoped to Turkey to direct excess of capacity.

Ban on air communication with Turkey is not, but because of the cessation of sales of tours in this area ahead of tour operators canceled charter flights ordered by Russian airlines.

Losses from air carriers reduce flights to Turkey yet to be assessed. For comparison – due to the suspension of flights to Egypt by the end of 2015, Russian airlines will lose about 9 billion rubles., Estimated the Association of Air Transport Operators (AEVT), of which 4 billion. Rub. It falls on the airline “North Wind” and 800 million rubles. – The carrier “Icarus”. Both airlines operate charter flights commissioned by the tour operator “Pegas Touristik”.

The government for the second time declared its readiness to support the Russian tourism industry.First Deputy Finance Minister Tatyana Nesterenko said that “the government has reserves to complex contingencies, if necessary, to provide some financial support to tour operators and airlines.”

However, hardly travel company see real money. As mentioned earlier, Vice Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, the Government suggests to “tie (payments) to the expansion of domestic tourism, and not just to compensate for losses from the failed foreign tours.” It should be noted that the Russian domestic product is, not all tour operators.

Tomatoes under embargo

The tourism industry has become the first victim of the economic aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations. However, it is likely not the last.

As reported by “News”, a member of the Public Chamber of Russia Pavel Sychev proposed the introduction of economic sanctions against Turkey, in particular, to extend her food embargo, which currently applies to the EU, the US, Canada and several other countries.

“A lot of facts speaks in favor of Turkey buy cheap oil from IG (banned organization in Russia).Therefore putting economic measures would be logical. We are talking about banning the importation of food products, “- said Sychev. According to him, it is necessary to prohibit imports from Turkey meat, fish, dairy products, fruits and vegetables.

“They import a lot of vegetables, fruits and dairy products. After the embargo their supply increased “, – said a member of the Public Chamber.

The embargo on pork

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Turkey is one of the largest trade partners of Russia – ranked sixth with a turnover of $ 31.6 billion at the end of last year. Exports totaled $ 24.9 billion, import – $ 6.6 billion. Turkey’s share in Russia’s foreign trade with all countries is 4%, 4,9% – for exports and 2.3% – by imports.

According to the Russian Federal Customs Service, in January-July 2015 the Russian-Turkish trade turnover decreased compared to the same period of year 2014 by 21.5% to $ 14.4 billion, including exports of $ 12 billion (down 16.5%) , import – $ 2.4 billion (down 39.8%). The decrease was mainly due to the devaluation of the ruble.

Russia supplies to Turkey, its traditional products – gas, oil and oil products, as well as metals, coal and wheat.From Turkey to Russia is the food and agricultural raw materials (33.2% in January-July this year), machinery, equipment and vehicles (23.4%), textiles and footwear (17.6%). The country is the largest supplier in the Russian food (especially fruits and vegetables).Enter an embargo on products from Turkey is very problematic, there is simply no alternative to it, as imports from the EU has already banned.

Distribution of the embargo on Turkey could lead to shortages of vegetables and fruits in trade networks, especially in autumn and winter. And of course, food prices will rise, as happened last year after the introduction of Russian kontrsanktsy.

On food products that fall under the kontrsanktsii for 2014, according to the Economic Development Ministry, the prices have grown by 17.9%, including input from the beginning kontrsanktsy – by 8.1%. “Due to increased demand and reduced competition import prices rose sharply on the domestic agricultural raw materials”, – stated the agency. Inflation last year was 11.4% at the end of this year, prices are projected to be about 13%.

Builders go

In addition to the tourism sector and food supplies, Turkish companies were active on the Russian real estate market, mainly engaged in construction.

“At the beginning of the two thousandth rebuilt almost all Turks. Since they are not a leader, but still believed that they can make complex quality projects “, – said Denis Sokolov, managing partner of Cushman & Wakefield.

According to the deputy mayor of Moscow on urban policy and the construction of Marat Husnullina, “Turkish companies for 20 years of presence in the Moscow market was built about 24 million square meters of real estate.”

As noted by Paul Yanshevsky, development director of SA Ricci, in a crisis of this year they had to in order to save to deny service to the Turkish experts, even at the level of lower-level managers, replacing them with local migrant workers, that is not the best impact on the quality.

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Turkey’s largest players in the Russian real estate market Enka, “Renaissance Construction” based came from Enka in 1993. In their portfolios a significant number of landmark projects, in particular, Enka participated in the reconstruction of the buildings of the State Duma and the Russian government and “Renaissance Construction” built three towers of Moscow City, including the “Federation”.

It should be noted that Turkish companies are actively involved in government contracts. So Enka was the only foreign company that made the construction of the power unit Berezovskaya GRES in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. In the market of building state saw Turkish companies as a key partner.

In 2014, the aggregate amount of stroypodryadov companies from Turkey to Russia amounted to about 50 billion rubles.

However, according to experts, their own assets from the Turkish business in the Russian real estate is not much. According to Sokolov, the care of Turkish companies to the Russian market will not be a serious blow, as general contractor on the market is now extremely tough competition, but in the medium term could affect the overall quality of construction.

However, as I said Yanshevsky Turkish developers will stay on the market until recently and on their own will not go away. At the same time, according to the Turkish Ambassador to Russia Gokhan Turan, the volume of direct investments in Russian projects by Turkish entrepreneurs is about $ 10 billion.

Marat Khusnullin said recently that if the previous Turkish “company acted mainly as contractors, but now they are willing to act as developers and investors.” He cited the example of the same company Enka, which has invested $ 530 million in the construction of a multifunctional complex “Kuntsevo plaza” and has several projects worth $ 500 million.

The city authorities until the last day saw the Turks one of the key partners. Now for them can be turned “red light”, and the Russian market and will lose enough quality work of contractors and investors willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars.

The pipeline will not be

Threatened and joint Russian-Turkish energy projects. Russia may abandon the construction of nuclear power plants in Turkey, “Akkuyu” with four power units, which is conducted on an “order – Rule over – exploit.” In this case, Russia has lost money invested in the project, which, according to open sources, $ 3 billion. However, the contract may break and Turkey.

“If you do not build a Russian” Akkuyu “, it will come and build another” – said in October this year Turkey’s President Erdogan.

Perhaps now seems unlikely that the project pipeline “Turkish stream.” The pipe had to go through the Black Sea and then through Turkey to the Turkish-Greek border. There is supposed to create a gas hub distributing further deliveries of Russian gas to Europe. Earlier “Gazprom” stated that the cost of laying the four strings will be 11.4 billion euros (excluding VAT), but industry experts say that the costs are likely to be higher. Then it was about four NITC total capacity of 63 billion cubic meters.

In early October, “Gazprom” has declared that the power of the TA will be reduced to 32 billion cubic meters. According to the head of monopoly Alexei Miller, this is due to the fact that the disposal capacity can be offset by other new project – “Nord Stream – 2”, with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters.

On the establishment of “Turkish Stream” Russia said at the end of last year, and since then, no specific agreements have been concluded. According to one version, it was originally associated with a discount on gas, which Russia has promised Turkey. The head of the Russian Ministry of Energy Alexander Novak said on October 2 that the discount may reach 10.25% and it “can be taken as the basis for the signing of the intergovernmental agreement on the” Turkish Stream. ” The Minister stressed that the issue of the discount – is a matter between commercial companies.

Turkey threatens to “Gazprom”

Turkey warns may replace Russian gas supplies from other sources. The reason for the threats was a violation of air borders of Turkey …  →

In October, Russian-Turkish relations worsened due to the fact that the Russian planes, striking Syria, twice violated Turkish airspace. Against this background, President Erdogan said that Turkey could even reconsider its position on the purchase of Russian gas.Turkish president noted that replace supplies from Russia, Turkey could “in various places.” But then the two sides confirmed their interest in the project.Although Turkey has not yet signed a definitive agreement.

The head of East European Gas Analysis Mikhail Korchemkin warns that “Gazprom” has already invested in the project “Turkish Stream” a huge amount.According to his estimate – $ 15-18 billion. “Officially,” Gazprom “will invest more than 0.5 trillion rubles. in the “southern corridor” – for very different exchange rates (“Southern corridor” – a network of gas pipelines in Russia, in which the gas was to arrive in the “South Stream”, which Russia has refused to pressure the European Commission, and now – in the “Turkish Feed “-” Gazeta. Ru »), – said Korchemkin. – Plus the cost of Saipem (Italian company, which was to lay pipes in the Black Sea and the contract already concluded) themselves pipe, including fixed costs of warehouses in Bulgaria, where the pipes are stored. “

Senior analyst with Rye, Man & Gor Securities Sergei Pigarev recalls that the situation was complex and the pipeline before the incident with the downed Russian bombers.

Turkey’s nothing to replace Russian gas, so gas cooperation will be continued, – says Pigarev. – Turkey – the second-largest importer of Russian gas after Germany, so the country will make every attempt to make the gas issue beyond the perimeter of the conflict. In particular, the new head of the Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Berat Albayrak has announced that “does not look pessimistic” on relations between the two countries in the sector. However, we can say with confidence that the signing of any documents on the “Turkish Stream” in the next few months will not take place. “

Summing up, it is worth noting that while neither Russian nor Turkish authorities have not announced any sanctions and the termination of cooperation in the economic sphere. Perhaps the hand, on the contrary, will make steps towards each other, to smooth the conflict. But the Kremlin has in the recent past has demonstrated that it is not ready to forgive his “partners” blows to your interests. And maybe in this case go to great costs sufficiently, the effect of which will affect primarily for ordinary citizens.