Regional governors did not learn from past during truckers protests. PHOTO: Vladimir Smirnov / TASS
Far regions ready to protest socio economic crisis and unresolved social problems
By Dergachov Vladimir / Gazeta.ru
Moscow, January 8 – Elections to the Duma against the backdrop of the economic crisis threaten large-scale protests. The report of the Center for Economic and Political Reforms (CEPR), experts warn: new protests will be much more difficult to handle than the unrest after the elections to the Duma-2011. At this time, discontent covers all social strata from distant regions, not just the “creative class” of mega-cities
A new report from CEPR ‘Protest – 2016: provoke any elections to the Duma shares the power of discontent? “Experts analyze protests to campaign for parliament in
“Bog protests” not mink coats united
In 2011, despite a sharp drop in ratings, “United Russia” managed to keep the majority in the Duma, which caused numerous accusations of fraud authorities. The campaign against the “United Russia” after the elections resulted in a series of large-scale protest rallies across the country.
The CEPR point: to predict the “bog protests” could, studying the polls a year before the event.Then, according to VTsIOM and FOM about a quarter of Russians were ready for a political and civil protest.
PHOTO TOP: Sergei Fadeichev / TASS
Close to government analysts from the Civil Society Fund called “swamp the protests” a “revolution coats”, saying that the rallies went largely “creative class.” However, CEPR retort: despite a pronounced political nature “of the marsh rallies”, already manifest sympathy for the protest is not only “the urban middle class.”
According to the opinion poll in December 2011, 10% of respondents expressed their willingness to join the shares for a recount in the election, 38% passively supported the demonstrators and 28% named claims groundless.
In the first group, there were two strong protest core: material position (25% could afford to buy a car, apartment, villa, etc.) and trade (38% of protest among state and municipal employees). Also, a large proportion of the audience nuclear protest was in Moscow and St. Petersburg (14%).
However, even among the second group – passively sympathetic to the protests – were retired (33%) engaged in household (31%), unskilled workers (29%), business (30%), and even the security forces (21%).
These data suggest that the “marsh protest” support not only “white-collar” and “the urban middle class.”
It is also interesting that the social aspect of dissatisfied transformed at the time of the “explosion”. The year before, “Marsh protest” the most affluent segments of the population (especially the wealthy citizens) rarely saw the need to protest, but in 2011 the situation changed.
Protests shift to the regions
When comparing the sociology of protest in 2010-2012 and data for 2014-2015, concluded in CEPR: protests shifted from the central regions of the periphery. And instead of the middle class to the streets grassroots social strata in which the crisis hit harder. Also, protests capture more socio-professional groups.
In recent years, the level of protest is stable at a low level, but on the way to the Duma elections in 2016 is growing. In September 2014, most likely, would have taken part in the protest 13% of the population reads data VTsIOM. And in August 2015 – already 19%.
In 2015, in its report on the socio-economic and political tensions in the region, the Committee of Civil Initiatives reported a 15% increase in th protest activity in the first half of the year. Strengthening left agenda on these protests Gazeta.ru reported earlier.
Against the background of the economic crisis in August 2015 VTsIOM recorded a dramatic shift toward low-income protest groups. Among people with an income of up to 5 thousand rubles member of the family were ready to protest 37%, with an income of 5-8 thousand. rub. – 29%, 8-10 thous. Rub. – 27%.
Also at the protest in 2015 it was ready to more young people: among people aged 18-24 the figure was 25%. The professional group of leaders ready to protest on the shares become qualified (23%) and unskilled workers (28%), business (22%). The proportion of the unemployed was ready to protest 21%.
Localized urban protest metropolitan regions remained at the same level (6%). But among quite ready to protest and residents of megacities (an increase from 11% in 2014 to 20% in 2015).
Major cities are potential points of protest, it confirms sociology and electoral statistics, the study authors write. In the gubernatorial election in 2015 residents of large cities have become leaders in voting against the candidature of the governor from power. In the Irkutsk region townspeople turn the tide in favor of the Communists, in the Amur region almost created a situation when the second round of voting against a candidate from the EP.
Although compared with a splash in 2011 protests, “dipped” in the capital, its geography in recent years, is widely distributed in the whole country, capturing new territory. Leaders of the protest potential of steel outermost regions: the Far East, ready to protest 30% in Siberia and the North Caucasus – 27%, in the Volga and Southern federal districts – more than 20%.
However, in the capital have been loud protests against paid parking.
According to the regular survey “FOMnibus” share ready to take part in protests for the first time since 2011 reached 17% in December of 2015. Moreover, this figure increased by 5% since the annexation of Crimea to Russia.
Picking and thematic protests. “Levada Center” revealed 71% of Muscovites supported the statement of charges against the truckers ‘Plato’, and 76% of residents of the capital, disaffected extension of paid parking zone.
Among the reasons for broadening the base of unprecedented protest CEPR calls over the past 16 years fall in income, a sharp rise in prices and the depreciation of the ruble. All this may lead to the electoral protest.
Defeat the majority in the Duma
FOM elicited gradual downgrade of the party in power for a year before the elections to the Duma 2011: from 53% in January to 50% in December 2010. But in an election year, the rating of “United Russia” fell to 38%. The main drop in support for the “United Russia” was not long before voting day. According to VTsIOM, even downgrade from June to August of 2011 turned into a sharp drop in the fall, until fixed in December 2011 low of 38%.
Recently, the rating of “United Russia”, according to the Public Opinion Foundation, has remained stable, but it is calm on the background of the rise of protest potential is as deceptive.
Despite the outward prosperity in the rankings EP in 2015, the party is not immune from the impressive drop support in an election year in the Duma because of the problems in the economy. New protests in this case threatens to turn “not in the context of the requirements of fair elections, and against the backdrop of a protracted socio-economic crisis and unresolved social problems,” the study authors write.
The main social base of “United Russia” – people with average incomes according to the national standards. At the same time the poorest and most affluent were less likely to vote for the ruling party.
It follows that a critical increase in the proportion of Russians in poverty hit the rating of the party of power, the experts conclude CEPR. According to Rosstat, in December 2015, the number of poor Russians has increased over the last year to 2.3 million. People: from 18 to 20.3 million.
Due to the uniform distribution of the representatives of different social groups in their party preferences, the mood of protest can be concentrated outside the party system. But the protest, says the report, will be able to pick up the political forces that will be most successfully position itself as an alternative to the current government.
What will the new wave of protest
The study in the CEPR conclude about the threat of a repetition of the scenario of protests of 2010-2012, when the preparations for the big federal election cycle was accompanied by growing dissatisfaction with government, protest vote and unrest on the streets.
In 2011, the Kremlin faced with an abstract articulation of discontent authority shortcomings of the system and lack of transparency of the political process. Narrow political demands free elections minimize audience protest.
But now the situation is worse for the government, because the conditions of growth of protest potential are beyond politics.
Citizens concerned about purely social issues: price increases, wage cuts, shift the poverty line. The situation deteriorates strongly with 1990s decline in living standards of the population and new fees (capital repairs, fee for truckers, charge for electricity networks in the long term, the fare on highways, parking in the capital).
And changing the social base of the protest, it now covers virtually all regions of Russia. Growing potential and a quality of protest that has swept most different socio-professional groups, including the traditionally apolitical.
If the “marsh protest” led the population of the capital, it is now ready to seize the initiative of residents of small towns. Unrest truckers showed that the point of “assembly” of protest can occur not only in the cities, and where work this social group – for example, on the slopes. Protests can cover and company towns as large enterprises can not cope with the consequences of the crisis.
The CEPR can not predict exactly what form will the protests. Civil disobedience is avoided, but people in crisis is much closer to the expression of radical discontent. The risk is exacerbated by the fact that the government does not solve the accumulated social problems.
Growing social tension is fraught with protest vote in the Duma elections.
The results of the EP elections to regional parliaments fell slightly in 2015 compared with the 2014 year, but is hampered by a serious drop of administrative resources and the general outward calm. According to the report, the situation can change dramatically during the federal campaign in the State Duma, when the background information “pumping” a political agenda to connect the majority of the population.
In 2011, “Duma” campaign has allowed the public to “let off steam”. The system of power remained intact in the end, defeating urban protest. But the economic crisis possible protests will be more difficult to locate and arrest. Long-term and depressive character of the economic crisis, the accumulated social problems – all this can provoke a protest with much greater potential threat to the government than the “swamp.”
“In any case, even if we survive, and in 2016, in 2017-2018 worth waiting for is not just peaceful protests and serious unrest, – says Director of CEPR Nikolay Mironov. – The political system is almost exhausted a margin of safety, its position is very shaky.
The authorities do not understand this and openly playing with fire. Trust in force, the administrative practices on the part of not clever. The society is now much more determination and discontent than it was in 2011. And it will only grow. Scrapping these sentiments of fear and repression will not work. “
“The weakness of the 2011-2012 protests was that powerful emotion of the protesters was not accompanied by a powerful content. As a consequence, the spread of the virus did not occur in the country. The question is whether change something in the meantime. Meaningfulness of the reasons for the protest will be more, but it is unclear whether there will be presentation of the citizens on the impact of the protest – there is large element of chance, “- says the head of the” St. Petersburg policy “Mikhail Vinogradov.
In his opinion, a lot depends on whether there will be a hotbed of protest politicized areas such as Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk, or is there going to happen, “the descent of steam.” In the second case in the future the situation will be more difficult in regions where steam comes out, at the end of the 1980s – then the center of strike activity was the territory of modern Kemerovo region and the Komi Republic.
Vinogradov obvious beneficiary calls protests in the crisis of the Communist Party, but, in his opinion, “the Communists are afraid of themselves – since 1996, they live with fear closer to the first place, even a third of them are psychologically more comfortable than the first.” The same situation is with the “Socialist-Revolutionaries”, “they are also afraid of – just younger than their fear,” concludes the analyst.
Translation / Gazeta.ru
Source: Протесты-2016: бедные и злые регионы
