Purtin Prepares a Big and Fast War

Путин готовится к большой и быстрой войне

Introduction

Kjev – March 7 – Vladimir Putin discusses Ukraine at length in a recent interview. He warns of revenge in Crimea and called for dialogue with the Southeast. 

This is all familiar coming from the Russian president. But he does add some new thoughts. Well, not so much new – as putting forward a new Putin version of the future of the Ukraine question.

The Russian president formally rejects the possibility of a Russia-Ukrainen war.  He calls  such a scenario apocalyptic.

Yet he brings up war talk?

The tinsel shaping of his words on the subject of war cannot be overlooked. Do understand speaking of a   Russia-Ukrainen war at the presidential level shapes it’s possibility upon the Russian mind. Because President Putin talks about war now everyone is allowed to talk about the possibility.  

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Putin’s Russia-Ukraine War Suggestion

Putin is  talks about the possibility of a  Russia-Ukraine War. This sets in motion I think a   flurry of conversations from various Russian politicians and public figures in the media. 

By the way, a prominent political weathervane Vladimir Zhirinovsky as always has already spoken where the wind is blowing. Promising all war and destruction.

Ukraine political scientist Peter Oleshuk . PHOTO: MillennialMonitor.com

Putin is rude – provocative – provoking. Fueling the fighting spirit of the stories about Ukraines’  Thunder army of miners and farmers. Apparently, upon hearing this, old-timers of the Russian army conscript should celebrate, as he proudly goes to the city.

The fact that a large war is possible is suggested by  the portrayals of the Russian media. After Minsk the shaping of ideas by the Kremlin’s  state control of the media    has not changed. Moreover, it has grown into a mind set of crazed  frankly schizophrenic anti-Maydan. 

The intensity of the Kremlin’s propaganda is constantly rising. Russian media’s   scaremongering packaging spreads new and horrific stories of Maidan, Ukraine and the EU.

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Identifying the Enemy

All that is portrayed on Russian television is not only ugly – it is also very expensive. Russian crisis propaganda management is expensive. And they continue to build   image of Ukrainians as the enemy. Russia’s enormous financial commitments to convince citizen about the need to kill Ukrainians is all done for a reason. 

The Kremlin is still convinced that war is not with the Ukrainian people. It is  with a small number  of pravoseko: provocateurs and agents of NATO. 

What is required is a decisive blow enough for their defeat. After which the pacification of Ukraine will be a matter of a short time.

The Kremlin maintains the propaganda momentum  without trying to consider if – even theoretically –  the possibility of international reaction.

I think in this case Russia will send up test runs of a series of conciliatory proposals. 

But we see that the war propaganda will be brought  to a new level.

All this shows that Kremlin is not concerned with international reactions. They clearly are betting on war as a way to solve all problems.

I think it will be preceded by an  enhanced action:  Issuing a surrender ultimatum to Ukraine:  Federalization, Crimea, Medvedchuk – Prime Minister and so on.

Who in the international community will complain? This may come in handy one of naphthalene Ukrainian leaders who are just now shown to the people. Is it possible that Yanukovych  can form some kind of Rescue Committee and put forward a plan for Ukraine’s liberation?

Well, there already are and will be announced proposals for the  break up of Ukraine, with Ukrainians doing the proposing.

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Soft Pressure Tactics

I do not think that everything will continue as an attack upon the League of Unrecognized Republics.  Because such methods have shown their low cost effectiveness.

Putin sees that events in the Donbas themselves do not look to cause Ukrainians enough reason to surrender. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the pressure. To maximum level.

There are options for designing various pressure tactics to soften Kjev’s attachment to the Donbas.

There is the threat of terrorist attacks and bloody fighting. Which would allow open Russian Federation intervention in the form of a  peacekeeping mission. Asked for by the   hapless people of the Southeast.

Putin would like to achieve this through Russian diplomacy.

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Encouraging Appeasement

I misspoke. Success for the Kremlin is achieved by cannibalizing the circumstances of the Kremlin’s Theater of Operations.   And you thought it Churkin, Russian diplomacy and Honduras? It’s not so simple.

The main thing that has brought Russia to this stage: Convincing the West that military assistance to Ukraine provokes aggression from Moscow.

Which, of course, is not true.

Russia will be aggressive  anyway – Against the Ukrainian army.

The Ukraine army continues to be in a state of virtual isolation.

Lulled by international disinterest – gently isolating Ukraine – Russia believes that it can go on the attack.

The Kremlin discounts international opinion. It is not part of the tactical planning. They clearly are betting on war as a way to solve all problems. 

The second victory – the belief of the international community that Russia may launch a global nuclear war.

Which is also a lie, but an effective lie. This will shape NATO’s  strategy of Russian appeasement.

Russia’s Ukraine actions have had significant affects on its international stature. The entire world is formally for Ukraine. But effectively there is no rush to help us. 

Putin is satisfied.

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End Game Tactical Moves

I think there will be a rapid escalation of events. For any protracted conflict cannot be included in the plans of the Kremlin. Direct aggression against Ukraine would force the EU and the US to respond.

Therefore, the operation should be planned as such:  They will make tactical moves to solve all obstacles before the actions of the West will have any effect.

But there is one but. The Russians  still do not understand Ukraine and are not able to calculate the consequences of their actions.

The Kremlin is still convinced that war is not with the Ukrainian people. The opposition is a small number of provacateurs and agents of NATO. And a decisive blow is enough for their defeat.

After which it will be only a short length of time for the  pacification of Ukraine.

But  the last year demonstrates how poorly Moscow understands Ukraine. And Russia does not want to understand Ukraine. This is evidenced that until recently the Kremlin’s adventures have led to unanticipated effects. 

Results of all these Russian adventures will be terrible and predictable for all. 

Related:
Ukraine Analysis – Video 

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