Weak Europe – Strong Greece
INTERVIEW: LÜDER GERKEN
For the economist Lüder Gerken it is certain: Even at the special summit, Greece has achieved the maximum achievement. In an interview with tagesschau.de, he explains why Europe from the beginning was in a weak negotiating position.
tagesschau.de: The decision on Greece is postponed. What can be achieved within the next 48 hours, which has not happened in the past six years?
Lüder Gerken: Aim can only be to reach a compromise formula, which can save face on both sides. We will do everything to keep Greece in the euro zone. Whether promised reforms are actually implemented, this is of secondary importance.
The fundamental problem in Greece does not change that does not exist with the exorbitant national debt. But the total loss of competitiveness of large parts of the Greek economy.
The country is not competitive on the world markets, with the exception of a few sectors such as tourism. Greece imports more than it exports.Thus making ever new debt.
A stronger Greece with return to drachma says economist Lüder Gerken
tagesschau.de: Which signal is conveyed by the adjournment on the state of Europe?
Gerken: If it now comes to a default, governments must first be responsible in the countries that have lent money to Greece. All promises that saving Greece will cost nothing, then are waste. The nakedness be the concerned Treasury and government does not want to give.
This Greece comes against repeatedly, has accepted half-hearted reforms in return for the payment of further aid.
Europe has drawn by a faint image. The term “governance” I do not want them using this context. The Greeks have the bargaining weakness of other euro countries and as creditor mercilessly exploited it.
tagesschau.de: What was and is this negotiation weakness?
Gerken: “If the euro fails, then Europe fails.”
This phrase of the German Chancellor has proven error. It was clear: Greece is maintained at all costs in the euro zone. Any credible threat was obsolete. So can not you bargain hard.
The Greeks have clearly seen and used their chance. For this they deserve respect. You have to grant them that they get the most out.
tagesschau.de: Higher VAT in the tourism sector, a special tax for the rich and abolish early retirement – that is what is ready to do Athens reportedly. Is that enough?
Gerken: No. The tax measures do not alter the structural problems. This turns a little different is, when one considers the abolition of early retirement. Here opens up for the Greek State the opportunity to reduce the excessively high labor costs.
But the reforms have to be much more comprehensive. Of Greece is far away.
tagesschau.de: What could bring a further haircut? And what a third rescue package?
Gerken: If Greece remains in the euro zone, there will be a third rescue package. The country is at least in the medium term beyond redemption. This can be seen alone on the propensity to consume, which is at 121 percent.
The Greeks consume so much more than they deserve. Since nothing is left for investments.On the contrary, the economy falls. At these disastrous numbers a haircut does not change, nor about how these numbers come about.
A toad we have to swallow
tagesschau.de: You have spoken for several years in favor of a return by Greece to the drachma.Why is this your opinion, absolutely necessary?
Gerken: After a devaluation of its currency Greek products on the world market would be competitive again. This is the crucial point. But we should not fool ourselves: A Greek exit from the euro leads to considerable distortions. For the present situation there is simply no clean solution. A toad we must swallow.
The return to the drachma seems sensible because this way would keep the euro zone strong. We now see already that the Greek example threatens to set a precedent. The heavyweights France and Italy fail also to take the necessary reforms.
Interview by Ute Welty, tagesschau.de
ARD.de / Translation
Ökonom bewertet Sondergipfel zur SchuldenkriseSchwaches Europa