TRANSLATION: GAZETA.RU

Moscow, October 7 – Germany could initiate strengthening of European sanctions against Russia because of the aggravation of the situation in Syria. If sanctions expand, the more problems will arise in the banking sector and the defense industry, and the consumers of household appliances and electronics will not be affected.

The German government is considering the introduction of new sanctions against Russia, told The Wall Street Journal, citing an informed source.The reason for this was the deterioration of the situation in Syria, which occurred, according to the German legislature, by the fault of Russia.

The government of Angela Merkel is exploring new ways to “push Moscow to change course in Syria,” according to a source publication. What means of influence can be applied at this time, it is not informed, the discussion of this issue “at an early stage.”

What do they think in the German Parliament on new restrictive measures against Russia, it is not known. But German Foreign Ministry spokesman Martin Schaefer said that the proposals on the introduction of new sanctions against Russia is not done, at least through official channels.

Similarly, the publication estimate the possible introduction of new sanctions and Moscow. Since there is no official statements – there is no subject of conversation. The Kremlin, in principle, does not believe the talk of sanctions constructive. It does not matter, they are connected with Ukraine or Syria. The Kremlin statement, Moscow did not violate international law in Syria. “Let’s not forget that the Russian Federation – is the only country where the armed forces is legitimate – from the point of view of international law – are in the Syrian Arab Republic,” – said a spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov.

Consider the possibility of strengthening the sanctions and in the White House, it previously stated US Secretary of State John Kerry.

Sanctions against Russia were introduced the US, the EU and some other countries in 2014, in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, due to the annexation of Crimea. Under the blow fell as a state-owned and state-owned banks and private companies, related parties involved in the conflict with Ukraine, including the person of the president’s inner circle. In addition, they were introduced and extended restrictions on the supply of Russian technology and equipment for the oil and gas industry, for the sphere of defense industry, the supply of dual-use items.

According to rough estimates, the loss of Russian sanctions could reach € 100 billion over two years.In September, EU Observer summed up the sanctions pressure on Russia: the greatest damage suffered those Russian companies against which direct restrictions were imposed. They have lost a third of operating profit, a third of workers and about half of the assets.

Companies that were under the influence of sectoral sanctions, suffered less. Indirect costs of sanctions are also significant because the investment climate in Russia has deteriorated, foreign investors began to withdraw from Russia.

The new reality – the war

Experts interviewed by “Gazeta.Ru” doubt tougher sanctions against Russia. “Strengthening of sanctions due to aggravation of the situation in Syria will not be. This topic has been removed, it seems to me, “- said the famous German political scientist Alexander Rahr. He believes that it is not necessary to attach great importance publication The Wall Street Journal, as this edition has traditionally taken a tough stance toward Russia.

The second argument Rahr: a new round of sanctions should not wait, because the defense of any State of its geopolitical interests should not be punished in this fashion. Otherwise, there is a new reality.Apparently, a new reality Rahr, always seeks the maximum correct wording to imply military action.

“Public opinion in Germany, predominantly against the extension of sanctions, are now in the EU as a whole is growing desire to restore a cooperative relationship with Russia, so that Merkel did not win anything from this.”

But the “war party” position is also strong, admits Rahr.

Earlier, faction “Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe» (ALDE) in the European Parliament introduced a draft resolution on the settlement of the Syrian crisis. The document says that the situation in Aleppo – a humanitarian catastrophe. Diplomatic efforts have failed supposedly the fault of Russia and the world community lacks effective tools to ensure respect for human rights. The resolution proposed to establish over Aleppo unmanned area, to provide humanitarian aid and evacuate the wounded and prepare a plan for the introduction of new sanctions against Russia.

Worse is nowhere

If the situation in Syria still will be an occasion to strengthen the West’s sanctions against Russia, then little effect, for example, for the same fuel and energy complex, not worth the wait. “Two years have passed since the introduction of sanctions, worse will not be. The oil industry has adapted. The necessary equipment – and the German and American – are purchased by India and China “, – said Victor Kostjukov, senior analyst of” algorithm. Fuel integrator. “

Russian consumers of household appliances and electronics also should not be afraid of sanctions fever. The main electronics manufacturer in the world – China – generally friendly Russia.

“Large home appliances – refrigerators, washing machines, microwave ovens – about a third made up of imported components and TVs by about 70%. But this is a guarantee that the electronics market can not be regulated by the sanctions. It is global and integrated to the maximum, “- says a source in the industry.

Component parts for household appliances produced by all countries. The German engineering has Turkish components, in Italian and French models, full Chinese and Korean components. “But smart phones and tablets are not produced in Russia in general, all the Russian gadgets stamped in China. So that the sanctions in this area at all useless. A ban on the supply of televisions or smartphones in Russia – is introduce a ban for their producers, “- said the representative of the industry.

As for the military-industrial sector, such as the ban on the export of Russian military equipment, or of certain types of weapons, most of the EU countries and the United States are not the key consumers of the products of the Russian defense industry. And in the current “black list” has made almost all more or less the major representatives of the Russian defense industry, said Ivan Andrievsky, the first vice-president of the Russian Union of Engineers.

The real problem may be that the Western countries will be called the largest importers of Russian weapons to stop trading with Moscow, threatening them with folding cooperation program.

According to “Rostec” Russia for the first 8 months of 2016 put the export of arms and military equipment for $ 7 billion. The portfolio of orders of “Rosoboronexport” is $ 46 billion.

The United States sought, including from Europe, a total ban on lending to the Russian economy, says Rahr.

“The West has imposed sanctions against the state-owned banks, this was the logic. Private banks were not restricted in the movement of capital. But if we now try to block the flow of capital for private banks – this is a very strong step, “- said Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank.

It is necessary to be afraid and to make the “black list” for investors Russian sovereign bonds. Russian Ministry of Finance, however, intends to publish in 2017 the sovereign Eurobonds for $ 3 billion.

Another portion of the sanctions against Russia may be introduced and on another occasion – in connection with the situation around the Russian annexation of Crimea and hostilities in the Donbass. The head of the European Council Donald Tusk has expressed confidence that the European Union will extend sanctions against Russia, which expire in January 2017. Minsk agreements to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, violated certain Tusk, primarily Russia.

As suggested to Reuters, the sanctions against Russia will remain in force, against the wishes of the business and even the leadership of some EU countries. Several European companies, including the German Metro, French Auchan, conducted business in the Crimea, and Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Slovakia and Hungary were opposed to the extension of the sanctions regime. These countries believe that the EU is not up to the sanctions and trade wars, on the contrary, in times of crisis it is necessary to stimulate the weak economic growth.

Bankers will be all the worse

The worst thing that can make the West – to tighten restrictions in the financial sector. Will suffer all kinds of business. The government and the central bank could not replace domestic business are cheap and long-term money, which he received in the international capital markets.

Certainty about sanctions can make a summit of the European Union, scheduled for October 20-21.

TRANSLATION: GAZETA.RU https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2016/10/06/10234397.shtml