Brussels abuzz: Planning Greek bankruptcy return to drachma

Pick a Departure TIme

BY PETER RIESSBECK

STRASBOURG, July 7 – In the dispute Greece brings on Tuesday no written proposals. In Brussels, first speak openly about Grexit, but there is also a positive development.

The atmosphere is still poisoned. “I want to trade SMS with the Greek Prime Minister” growled EU Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker on Tuesday morning in the Strasbourg European Parliament.

He had just spoken very emotionally in plenary and called for Greece remaining in the euro zone. “I am against a Grexit”,  Juncker declared.

In the ensuing debate, however, MEP Krisztina Morvai had bothered to phone his fixation. “I need to make today, I do my job,” said Juncker justified scathing about his contact with the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. The tone indicates the tension in the dispute with Athens.

The country is about to go bankrupt and in a departure from the euro zone.

In the evening, meet the leaders in Brussels. Prior to the euro zone finance ministers had come together. For the first time took Euclid Tsakalotos a GreekFinance Minister at thenegotiations.

He presented surprisingly no written proposals. It remained an oral presentation. By “difficult conversations” said Euro group chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem. New cast therefore, but no improvement in the situation.Greece remains undocumented.

Juncker: Forego Verbal

Europe must learn to talk to all the hard controversy in recent weeks. “Disarm verb” recommended Juncker. B

But no Greek proposal – no movement.

There is “still no basis given for negotiations,” said Chancellor Angela Merkel and warned: There go “no longer weeks, but days.”

Harte Linie so. Like Finland, the Baltic States and Nederland. If the suggestions do not come soon, “it’s over quickly,” said Hollands Premier Mark Rutte.

Can Greece now stay in the euro?

The probability has dropped significantly.

The Greek people do not want to share the reform and austerity measures.

Thus it is for German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), French President Francois Hollande and IMF President Christine Lagarde increasingly difficult to organize even support for Athens.

The national bankruptcy and return to the drachma take shape.

Others sounded more conciliatory. Gradually the device front against Athens from crumbling.

Italy, France and Spain fear contagion of the crisis. That makes you think differently.

French President François Hollande also examines debt relief.”What do you want that Greece remains in the euro zone?” He said.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi thinks similarly. Spain’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, he would like to inherit Dijsselbloem as Euro group chief, offered himself as a mediator.

Even in Athens was stirring something. Tsipras sounded a common position of the main political groups, some saw it as even the nucleus of a unity government. 

Small progress. But lacks negotiable proposals. And so threatens the worst.

Valdis Dombrovskis  Vice-President of the European Commission is part of the Group of  hardliners. He explained: If the trust will not be rebuilt and there is no credible reform package, “Grexit not excluded”. 

Three scenarios

Three scenarios are possible. All three involve uncertainties.

There’s the terrible variant – the bust and the inglorious departure of Greece from the euro zone. Hardly anyone put the on Tuesday as sharp as Latvia Ilmars Rimšēvičs central bankers.

He said: “The Greek nation was bold and has within itself selected to leave the euro.” But would be difficult to calculate consequences for countries such as Italy, Spain and France. And especially for Greece.

EU Parliament President Martin Schulz warned already on humanitarian aid. Europe is therefore more in the responsibility.

As would, secondly, friendly separation. It explores with Athens an orderly withdrawal from the euro.

Acropolis Adieu!

There remain, thirdly, the good end of the story – at least for the Greeks.

Say a deal via a third rescue package.

According to EU diplomats Tsipras wanted to ask for help from the bailout fund ESM. But lurking risks.

Risk I: Tsipras needs a debt deal – at least as a symbolic triumph. However, the average interest rate, paid by the country, with 2.36 percent low.

First repayments to the Euro Partners also stand at only 2023.

A deal would thus relieve Tsipras only politically.

In addition there is resistance –  by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

At most would consider to auszuloben a debt discount as a reward for the successful completion of a third program. But that’s the kind of reward for good behavior, the dislike Tsipras.

And German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble made it clear: “He who knows the European treaties, know that a debt-section is covered by the bailout ban.”

In addition, risk lurks II. It does not flow money without reforms. The need to be agreed and parliaments like the Bundestag would have to agree. It takes time.

Time that Greece has not. The banks in the country closed through to the end of the week.

In addition, on July 20, is a rate exceeding 3.5 billion euros at the European Central Bank.

On August 20, followed by the next. Already been fiddled. Austrian central bank chief Ewald Nowotny suggested a bridge help by the ECB.Be an agreement since, the program Terminal still in individual parliaments, the ECB could step in. Legally tricky. Opposition came promptly, as in Finland.

Even the happy ending can be dangerous.

It is fleeting as the joy of love. 

The wise Commission President Juncker guessed it already on Tuesday morning.: 

“There will be no simple solutions. Because there are never easy solutions in Europe.”

That sounded almost like an oracle.

Translation : FrankfurterRundschau

Griechenland Vergiftete Atmosphäre in Brüssel

2015-07-07